No. 24 (24/09/99)

NATO's Defence Capabilities Initiative -
Preparing for future challenges
Frank Boland (Head, Force Planning Section of NATO's Defence Planning and Operations Division)

The Defence Capabilities Initiative arises from the recognition that, in order to meet the challenges resulting from the fundamental changes in the security environment, improvements to the Alliance's crisis response capabilities are necessary. During the Cold War, NATO planning focused on defence against large-scale aggression directed at Alliance territory. This scenario required pre-determined defence plans and made predictable demands on the capabilities of Allies. The large scale of national contributions and their concentration in a few geographical areas meant that nations provided their own logistic support, though this was often reinforced by the host nation. Transport to deploy forces and equipment could be requisitioned from commercial sources under emergency powers.

Force deployment was to be assisted by host nation support agreements and existing infrastructure, some common-funded by the Alliance. The planning scenario assumed that such a large-scale conflict would be relatively short before a conclusion was reached by military or political means. Consequently there was little need to make provision for sustaining forces over a long period, including through force rotation. The requirement for interoperability between Alliance forces was also relatively limited.

Since then the security environment has changed greatly, as reflected in the Alliance's new Strategic Concept approved at the Washington Summit. NATO will continue to maintain capabilities to deal with large-scale aggression against one or more of its members, though such a threat is unlikely in the foreseeable future and it would probably entail a relatively long warning time. Potential threats to Alliance security are now more likely to arise from regional conflicts, ethnic strife or other crises, especially on the Alliance's periphery or beyond. These factors require continued Alliance solidarity and the maintenance of an effective military capability, including greater emphasis on elements commensurate with the new environment, to minimise risks and prevent crises from threatening the Alliance itself.

Rapid deployment

NATO must therefore be prepared for operations outside or on the periphery of Alliance territory where it may not be able to take full advantage of its existing military infrastructure. A demonstrable Alliance rapid deployment capability will be essential for the credible and effective use of the threat of military response to manage crises and prevent escalation. In the event of military operations, rapid deployment of forces would also be required to deny an adversary the opportunity to consolidate his position.

Force contributions by individual Allies (or Partners and other participating nations in the case of crisis response operations) could be relatively small and may be part of multinational units. This requires command and control and information systems in particular to be interoperable at lower levels than in the past. It also calls for a new approach to logistics.

The smaller the individual national force contributions, the less efficient the logistic support provided primarily through national channels and the greater the effectiveness of the operation as a whole if logistic resources are coordinated multinationally. Operations could be of long duration and more than one operation may need to be conducted at the same time, requiring a logistic support system capable of providing supplies over an extended period and supporting concurrent operations. There will also likely be a requirement to rotate forces during the period of the operation, which will necessitate force structures capable of providing fresh units when required, and have consequences for the retraining of units returning from an operation.

Advanced technologies

NATO's potential future adversaries will probably not be able to mass the scale of forces that Alliance defence plans were designed to counter during the Cold War. However, the accelerating pace of technological change means that an adversary could, nonetheless, possess weapons capable of inflicting considerable damage on Alliance forces. This calls for the employment of sophisticated defensive and counter-offensive systems by NATO. The Alliance must also possess a greater capability to use military force in pursuit of precise objectives in order to minimise the risk of collateral damage and civilian casualties. And it is important that a wide range of Allies can contribute advanced capabilities to future operations so that the burden does not fall disproportionately on only a few. One effect of employing such systems could be a reduction in the scale of forces needed to fulfil the requirements of the mission.

Future operations involving European Allies and possibly led by the Western European Union (WEU) or the European Union (EU) will face challenges in the management of multinational operations which could be as demanding as those of Alliance operations. The development of more extensive and focused interoperability to underpin multinational operations and the acquisition of advanced capabilities by a wider range of Allies will therefore also contribute to building the European Security and Defence Identity within the Alliance.

Improving Alliance capabilities

Against this background, NATO's Executive Working Group, reinforced by senior officials from national capitals, examined possible improvements in Alliance capabilities with a particular focus on improving interoperability among Alliance forces, and, where applicable, between Alliance and Partner forces. Work focused on a number of broad areas to identify the steps that might be taken, in both the short and long term, to accelerate progress in existing projects and initiate work on other needed capabilities. Those fields were selected where improvements in capabilities would contribute significantly to meeting the challenges of the future.

The deployability and mobility of Alliance forces were important areas for examination. Among the factors considered were the availability of transport assets, including various options for the use of civilian resources uch as shared use, and the level of deployable infrastructure necessary to permit a NATO-led force to deploy in theatre. The sustainability and logistics of Alliance forces was also addressed. It is likely that greater multinationality in logistic support, such as establishing a Multinational Joint Logistic Centre, could enhance the efficiency of operations. We may also need to encourage a different mix of units in national force structures to increase the proportion of support units.

The study also covered the survivability of Alliance forces and their capacity to effectively engage an adversary. Among the issues considered in this context were the need for more - and more capable - reconnaissance and surveillance systems, a combat identification system, precision-guided weapons that can be delivered in day or night in any weather conditions, and capabilities to address the risks posed by weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery. Improvements in command and control and information systems were also studied to review the scope for greater interoperability and to ensure the availability of increased numbers of deployable communications assets.

All these areas need to be complemented by an increased focus on the development of commonly agreed military concepts, applicable to a wide range of future situations. And they also need to take into account factors such as levels of training, increased standardisation and enhancing the military capabilities and effectiveness of multinational formations. In some cases the Executive Working Group was already able to identify at this early stage how to improve certain capabilities. In others, further work will be required to examine different options and make firm recommendations about improvements to be made.

Next steps

To take this work forward, the Washington Summit established a High Level Steering Group to oversee the implementation of the Defence Capabilities Initiative and to ensure better coordination and harmonisation among the relevant NATO planning disciplines. It will be chaired by the Deputy Secretary General and will be composed of senior officials from national capitals to ensure that the Initiative is taken forward quickly with maximum political support. The Steering Group will work for two years and, in addition to focusing on capabilities needed by Allies, it will seek to include Partners in appropriate areas of its work. The aim is to achieve lasting improvements in capabilities and interoperability to better equip the Alliance for the challenges of the future.