No. 10 (04/04/97)     A month of euro-atlantic integration (March 1997)

March 3

• British Defense Minister Michael Portillo agreed with the Americans that the agreement regarding the regulation of the cooperation between NATO and Russia should not be one that is to be ratified. However, he stated that he was opposed to the American suggestion according to which the Europeans should take peace-keeping over after the American troops leave. We went there together, so we would leave together - he said.
• The participants of the EU-Russian summit meeting at Moscow agreed on strengthening the partnership between the European Union and Russia. Boris Yeltsin expressed his satisfaction that the dialogue covering all the fields would continue between the two parties. He confirmed that Russia would not abandon reforms. The President of the European Committee Jacques Santer declared that the EU supported the Russian efforts to cooperate. Yeltsin stated in connection with questions concerning European security that he was opposed to the enlargement of NATO. Both parties agreed that expansion of the partnership relations played an important role in the unity and stability of the continent. The current President of the European Union, the Dutch Prime Minister Wim Kok also participated in the talks and he declared that Russia did not have a veto-right regarding NATO-enlargement.
• The U.S. Administration highly appreciates the Hungarian preparations for NATO-membership, and though formal decision has not been made yet, it believes that Hungary has good chances to get into the first group of joiners. The American opinion was expressed by Defense State Secretary Walter Slocombe at a meeting with Foreign Minister László Kovács.

March 4

• President Aleksander Lukashenko of Belarus urged NATO to conclude a separate trety with his country and he added that the "new European order" should be established without the participation of the United States. The termination of the unnatural division of Europe in 1989 identified with the name of Jalta was a bright moment, but the transition process that followed it was full of uncertainties - declared the Secretary General of NATO in London. Javier Solana arrived in the British capital on the invitation of the Royal Institute of Foreign Affairs, where he met Prime Minister John Major and Defense Minister Michael Portillo as well. Solana said that the new European security system was to be established yet, but the NATO-summit due in four months would lay down the basis of the new model.
• The criteria set in Copenhagen concerning admittance into the EU apply to Turkey just they do to the East-Central-European countries as well - declared State Secretary at the Foreign Ministry in Bonn Werner Hoyer. Although he thinks that it is important to keep the doors open concerning the potential admittance of Turkey into the EU, if Turkey does not meet the criteria, it cannot become a member.

March 5th

• The West went as far as promising then Soviet President Mikhail Gorbachev six years ago - when it wished to achieve the withdrawal of the Soviet troops from the former GDR - that the East-Central-European countries could never join NATO - disclosed the Russian Foreign Minister in a lecture held at the end of his visit to London. Jevgeny Primakov said that it was a mistake that the promise of the West "had not been demanded in writing at that time." However, Primakov admitted that the expansion of the borders of the Western Alliance was an irreversible process. The Foreign Minister said that though the Russians were opposed to NATO-enlargement at the bottom of their heart, it is up to the individual countries to join any organization they want to and "Russia does not have a veto power in this question".
• Two-thirds of the adult population of Slovenia (with a total population of 2.2 million) would support their country's NATO-membership; 44% of them would look upon Germany, while 33% of the them would treat Italy as their major ally in the Atlantic community. These were the results -- among others -- of an opinion poll conducted by the daily Ljubljana Delo. At the same time, the majority of those polled would oppose the establisment of NATO military bases on Slovene territory or the stationing of foreign soldiers in the former Yugoslav member state.

March 6

• U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright said before the House of Representatives that the failure to expand NATO would mean that the West would punish the East- Central-European countries twice this century -- first after World War II, and second after the end of the Cold War.

March 9th

• According to the latest opinion poll of the Moscow-based public opinion institute named Mnenie, a majority of 46% of the people think that Hungary's membership in NATO would not pose a threat and that the territoty of the country would be used for attacking Russia. 18% of the people asked were of different opinion, while 36% of them could not answer the question. The opinion poll also revealed that the majority of the Russians, 54% of them believe that joining NATO is exclusively the internal affair of Hungary and the predominant majority of them, 71% of the people asked rejected the notion that Hungary would be a sort of buffer zone between the West and the East instead of being a member in NATO.
• Secretary General of NATO Javier Solana and Russian Foreign Minister Jevgeny Primakov finalized an agreement in Moscow which provides for the principles and the forms of cooperation of partnership and European security. The West made substantial concessions for the sake of the agreement. It is willing to modify the agreement on the reduction of the conventional arms besides renouncing deploying nuclear missiles in Central-Europe, and it is also ready to consult with Moscow regarding questions of security and military policy which affect Russian interests through the NATO-Russian council.

March 10

• It is only with the support of the situation of Central-Europe that the danger of the future generations' being forced on the battlefields of Europe can be avoided - this is the major reason for expanding NATO according to the British Foreign Secretary. Malcolm Rifkind declared that Russia would only benefit from the expansion of NATO.
• As far as the expansion of the NATO and the European, Poland and Italy are on a common platform - said Polish Prime Minister Wlodzimierz Cimoszewicz after meeting with his Italian counterpart, Prime Minister Romano Prodi.

March 11

• It is unlikely that NATO would like to seek for the acquiescence, if not for the acceptance of the expansion of NATO by Russia with a series of further substantial concessions - said Chris Donnelly, adviser of the General Secretary in matters related to East-Central-Europe in connection with Javier Solana's talks in Moscow.

March 12

• NATO and Moscow are on the brink of agreement -- announced The International Herald Tribune. There have been three rounds of talks between the two sides, and as regards the agreement over strategic partnership so much progress was made in the course of the negotiations of the General Secretary of NATO in Moscow at the week- end that the document may be signed either in May or in June at a separate summit meeting attended by the leaders of the sixteen member states and President Boris Yeltsin. It seems from the leak in Brussels that the West is willing to offer Russia full membership in the G-7 Group of the most developed countries in the world, while Moscow tacitly accepts that NATO incorporates Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic as members of the organization.
• The Administration in Washington has produced a too "optimistic and cheap" scenario regarding the expected costs of enlarging NATO - this is the general opinion among the European and American defence circles. According to The Washington Post, the proliferation of doubts in the military circles can be explained with the fact that the study of the U.S. Administration estimated the expected costs of enlargement at the value of USD 27-35 billion in the next thirteen years as opposed to the previous estimates of USD 42-120 billion.
• President Gunlis Ulmanis of Latvia repeatedly emphasized that the Baltic states would like to join NATO. The Latvian President appealed to the leaders of the North-Atlantic bloc in an interview given to a Danish paper that they should give "stable and exact security guarantees" to all the states before the crucial summit in Madrid in summer which will decide about the enlargement of the organization which have indicated their intention to join it.
• The President of the Slovak National Party (SNS), which is a member of the governing coalition, thinks that their potential joining the NATO might drive the country into economic bankruptcy. "It would require billions of crowns to transform our military into one which is completely compatible with NATO and it might absolutely bankrupt Slovakia", declared Jan Slota in a program broadcast on the Slovak state television. Vladimir Meciar's three-party coalition cabinet identified the country's joining NATO and the European Union as one of the most important foreign political goals, but there are serious differences within the coalition concerning this question. The two smaller coalition partners, the SNS and the far-left wing Labor Association have given voice to their reservations in public several times.
• Austria strongly backs Poland's efforts to join the European Union and NATO - said Austrian Foreign Minister Wolfgang Schüssel in Warsaw. The Austrian politicians announced after his talks with his Polish counterpart that the integration of the Central- European reform countries would not only serve the stability of the region, but it would serve that of the whole continent and Russia as well.

March 13

• Slovenia has good chances to be invited to attend the talks on joining at the NATO- summit to be held in Madrid in July -- this is the opinion of the strategic experts at the British Jane's. They argue for this scenario by reminding us that the Hungarian borders, which are far from the seacoasts, can only be reached through the neutral Austria or through Slovenia in times of emergency. At the same time, the admittance of this Balkan country does not really attract the interest of Russia either.
• German Defense Minister Volker Rühe said at the meeting of the Defense Committee of the Bundestag in Bonn that the first group of countries to be admitted into NATO should be limited to Hungary, Poland, and the Czech Republic, and that the talks about admittance should be completed this year. The Defense Minister talked about the negotiations between the West and Russia with guarded optimism.

March 14

• If NATO decided to expand the organization despite the opposition of Moscow, then Russia would be compelled to announce that under such circumstances it could not guarantee any more that it would not use nuclear weapons first. This statement was made by one of the Vice-Presidents of the Russian Lower House, the Duma, Sergei Baburin. He believes that Russia should repudiate his obligations made earlier regarding disarmament.

March 16

• According to a television interview given by Ukrainian President Leonid Kuchma, "it is in the interest of both NATO and Europe, as well as of Russia and the successor states of the former Soviet Union" that his country should stay out of the blocs. Kuchma sharply criticiyed Russia for her policies toward Ukraine, which he called unfriendly and aggressive. He declared if Moscow is not willing to give up this sort of policy, then the only thing it achieves is "pushing Ukraine closer and closer to NATO."

March 17

• Jevgeny Primakov absolutely resolutely opposed the enlargement of NATO in Washington. The Russian Foreign Minister met with President Bill Clinton so that they would prepare the way for the summit meeting in Helsinki. However, he was ready to make compromises despite the harsh words. He did not call the enlargement of the organization unacceptable any more, did not insist on offering only "political" membership to the Central-Europeans, and he did not demand that the charter under preparation be ratified by each member state either.

March 20

• The planned eastern enlargement of NATO, questions of arms limitation, and the opportunities of economic cooperation - these items make up the agenda more or less of the summit meeting of the American and the Russian Presidents which started in Helsinki. It is the 11th time that U.S. President Bill Clinton and Russian President Boris Yeltsin have met, and the Finnish capital has hosted the meeting between the leaders of the two great powers for the first time.

March 21

• The summit meeting between U.S. President Bill Clinton and Russian President Boris Jeltsin in Helsinki has yielded better results than expected. Though no concrete agreement was made - and the parties declared that they continued to disagree on the question of NATO-enlargement - the two heads of state signed five joint communiques on European security, chemical weapons, antiballistic missiles, strategic weapons, and bilateral economic relations.

March 24

• Russian Defense Minister Igor Rodionov met with the Chairman of the Military Committee of NATO Klaus Naumann and after the talks he declared that he was glad with the achievements at the Russian-American summit meeting in Helsinki and he thought that the Russian-NATO relations had been boosted. Naumann emphasized that they had managed to find a solution to the enlargement of the North-Atlantic Alliance which "will be in the interest of both Russia and NATO."