No.32. (10/12/2004)

25-27. November- Report on the 58^th Rose-Roth Seminar in Baku:
UNRESOLVED CONFLICTS BAR PROGRESS IN THE SOUTH CAUCASUS

The situation in Azerbaijan and the South Caucasus in general were the subject of the 58th NATO Parliamentary Assembly Rose-Roth seminar, which took place in Baku, on 25-27. November Organised jointly with the Milli Mejlis of Azerbaijan, the seminar brought together some 40 members and associates of the Assembly and a large number of international observers.

Participants agreed on the increasing strategic relevance of the South Caucasus due to the volatility of the surrounding region, the proximity to southern Russia, Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan, the trans-national nature of contemporary threats, the presence of substantial energy resources in the Caspian and the gradual approach of NATO and EU borders.

The stability of region is affected equally by internal challenges facing the three countries as they each make the difficult and painful transformation away from Communist structures, and particularly by unresolved or "frozen" conflicts. The possibility of achieving effective cooperation between the states while these conflicts persisted was debated at length. There was general recognition that cooperation should continue whenever and wherever possible but that the full potential of such cooperation could not be realised until the conflicts were resolved.

The conflict in Ngorno Karabakh and the occupation by Armenia of a substantial part of Azerbaijani territory dominated most of the presentations by Azerbaijani officials. The current situation, it was said, affects all aspects of Azerbaijan's society, political, economic, social, and military. A lengthy exposé by Azerbaijani Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov illustrated the difficulty of making progress in the current situation of "no war no peace", yet stability in the region rests critically on a solution to the conflict. According to the Minister, that solution would have to be based on mutual agreement, reciprocity, and offer the possibility of cooperation in the future. He ruled out a simple exchange of territories arguing that such a solution would bring more distrust and insecurity. Dennis Sammut, Director of the British NGO LINKS stressed the need for a "flexible" approach requiring more "political will" from both sides and the support of the international community. Nonetheless, he indicated that the situation presented some positive aspects: firstly, the ceasefire had lasted since 1994 without the help of external forces; and secondly, negotiations had been going on all the time, in what he defined a "dynamic" process.

There was some discussion of popular attitudes toward the conflict and the need for peace. While it was agreed that everyone wanted and needed peace, this could not be at any price. Certainly public opinion in Azerbaijan would find it difficult to accept certain positions. This, it was said informally, was one of the reasons the Key West talks had not developed further.

Disappointment was expressed by all participants at the non appearance of the Armenian Delegation. Contrary to press reports from Yerevan, the Armenian delegation due to participate in the Seminar had not been denied access to Azerbaijan. The NATO PA and the Azerbaijani Parliament had done everything possible as joint hosts to ensure the safe arrival and security of the delegation. These measures and assurances had been communicated to the Armenian delegation. The decision not to travel had been taken at a very late stage.

Some incoherence and lack of coordination in the policies of international actors was highlighted with regard to the general approach to conflict resolution in the South Caucasus. According to Turkish expert Mustafa Aydin, "sometimes containing conflicts is easier than solving them", therefore it was important that the peoples of the region do not rely only on international actors to solve them. In this sense, the contribution of the South Caucasus Parliamentary Initiative set off by LINKS, which brings together legislators from the region on a regular basis, was deemed extremely valuable.

Azerbaijan's relations with Russia and Turkey were also extensively discussed during the seminar. While the role of both countries appeared fundamental in solving the problems of the whole region, there were still questions about how such role could be best performed. With regard to Russia, Brenda Shaffer of Harvard University suggested the possible deployment of future NATO-Russia joint peacekeeping forces to enforce agreed resolutions of conflicts.

Azerbaijan's internal stability was also discussed with the contribution of Interior Minister Ramil Usubov. He expressed concern at the rise of Islamic fundamentalism in the countryside, as well as the problem of organised crime in the entire region. Representatives of the civil society highlighted Azerbaijan's progress in implementing legislation on civil and human rights. However, much remained to do in terms of democratisation and the fight against corruption. According to OSCE Head of Mission in Baku, Maurizio Pavesi, the parliamentary elections due to take place in 2005, will be a crucial test for the country. In addition, while freedom of media appeared undermined by the current legislation and public control of TV, also the professional standards of journalists needed to be improved.

NATO's potential role in conflict resolution in the region was continually referred to, particularly by Azerbaijan's participants who drew parallels with Kosovo and Afghanistan. Alliance and Assembly representatives emphasized that NATO was offering co-operation and assistance to these countries in various areas, particularly defence reforms. However there was no consensus among NATO members for the Alliance to take a more formal role the in the mediation efforts underway.

In their relations with NATO, the countries of the South Caucasus -and Azerbaijan in particular- have already made considerable progress in terms of adaptation to NATO standards and participation in PfP activities. A presentation by Azerbaijani Defence Minister General Safar Abiyev highlighted the country's achievements in the area of defence reform and the support that NATO was offering. According to British expert Sir Garry Johnson, the role of parliaments in security sector reform was crucial in two areas: first to approve legislation to implement reform; and second to control defence budgets. According to Sir Garry, it was important during the process of defence reform to define competences: "the government decides what needs to be done, whilst the armed forces decide how". Nonetheless, change had to be interpreted as a gradual process, in order not to destabilize the armed forces.

David Law, representing the Geneva based Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces (DCAF), commented on the potential of the new Defence Institution Building (DIB) initiative developed by NATO to help the countries of the region and beyond.

The importance of the Caspian Sea energy resources in the economic development of the region was also discussed. Redistribution of oil revenues appeared a crucial question, but most countries in transition had failed to translate oil-derived revenues into better conditions for their citizens. Western companies can help establish standards of transparency and accountability, but in the end the decision on how to redistribute revenues will be taken by governments.

In conclusion, despite their concerns about the stability of the region, members of the NATO PA expressed their satisfaction at the open and constructive spirit demonstrated by all regional participants, particularly from Azerbaijan, in the two-day discussions.